Markets get a calmer day after a week of volatility

___

Published Date 3/21/2025

Yesterday the 10 year note closed 1 bps down from Wednesday’s decline after the FOMC and Powell’s press conference. In sum, Powell expressed concern over the tariffs but also said while he expects the economy and employment may slow, he thinks the slowdown won’t lead to a protracted, long-term issue. On rate cuts he held out the possibility based on income data. In the quarterly Fed projections lowered the forecasts for growth, increased unemployment, increased PCE inflation from the forecasts made in the December data.

There are no data points today. Today is triple-witching day where options contracts expire, more than $4.5 trillion in stocks will expire during the latest quarter. According the MarketWatch a team of derivatives analysts at Goldman Sachs put the figure at $4.7 trillion, based on values as of Wednesday’s close. The expirations the biggest since December, when contracts worth roughly $6.6 trillion were either exercised or expired worthless.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -320, NASDAQ -171, S&P -42. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.22% -1 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +3 bps from yesterday’s close and +4 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.

Next week a few data points; consumer confidence index, consumer sentiment index and key inflation on PCE lead but the calendar has more to chew on.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Licensed by the NJ Department of Banking and Insurance; Licensed Mortgage Banker - NY Department of Financial Services; Licensed Mortgage Banker - CT Department of Banking; Licensed Mortgage Banker - PA Department of Banking, Licensed Mortgage Lender – FL Office of Financial Regulation

All rates, fees and programs are subject to change without notice.