February Consumer Sentiment was much lower than expected

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Published Date 2/25/2025

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving lower today. The MBS market improved by +13 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Housing: December YOY Case Shiller Home Prices moved up 4.5% versus estimates of 4.5%. On a MOM basis, the FHFA Housing Price Index increased by 0.4% versus estimates of 0.2%.

Manufacturing: The February Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will hit at 10 am ET and is expected to be in the -2 range. It was reported at 6.

Consumer Confidence: The February Conference Board's Consumer Sentiment Index will hit at 10 am and is expected to fall from 104.1 to 103.0. It was reported at 98.3.

The Fed: We will hear from Fed Vice Chair Barr today.

Treasury Auction: We have a 5 year Treasury note auction today at 1 pm ET.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets are getting a boost on the low consumer confidence. Volatility has started high.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

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All rates, fees and programs are subject to change without notice.