Markets return to normal trading with a week filled with labor data

___

Published Date 1/6/2025

This is December employment week. Treasury will auction 3s, 10s and 30s for a total of $119B.

Former Fed chair Ben Bernanke doesn’t believe Trump’s economic policies will radically impact inflation. “I agree Trump policies, whatever their merits on public-finance grounds, probably will be modest in terms of their effect on the inflation rate,” Bernanke said during a panel discussion on the inflation outlook at the American Economics Association. Trump’s tariffs according to Bernanke; “Barring some very unusual situation, including geopolitical risks, it doesn’t seem it is really going to shift the inflation path radically.” He remarked that Trump’s 2017 tax cuts that he wants to extend are all ready in place according Bernanke.

Now that the two weeks of holidays are over markets will return to normalcy with routine trading. This week does have a little interruption, President Jimmy Carter body will rest in the Capital Dome on Wednesday. Today the new Congress gets back to work beginning to confirm or deny Trump’s cabinet picks, most will get confirmed according to the news reports.

At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened +135 after increasing 440 on Friday, NASDAQ opened +224 from +341 on Friday, S&P +47 from +74 on Friday. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +3 bps from Friday’s close and +1 bp from Friday’s close; the 6.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +5 bps and +5 bp from Friday’s close.

At 1 pm $58B 3 year note auction.

This Week’s Economic Calendar:

Monday,

10 am November factory orders were -0.4%, -0.3% was expected

1 pm $58B 3 year note auction

Tuesday,

10 am December ISM services index (53.2 from 52.1)

November JOLTS job openings (7.65 million from 7.744 million)

11:30 am $39B 10 year note auction (time is questionable)

1 pm $30 year bond auction

Wednesday,

8:15 am December ADP private jobs (134k from 146K)

2 pm FOMC minutes

3 pm November consumer credit (+$11.8B from $19.2B)

Thursday,

8:30 am weekly jobless claims (216K from 211K)

Friday,

8:30 am December employment data (unemployment 4.2% unch, NFP jobs 157K from 227K, private jobs 130K from 194K, average hourly earning month/month 0.3% from 0.4%, year/year 4.0% unch from November)

10 am December University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (74.5)

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Licensed by the NJ Department of Banking and Insurance; Licensed Mortgage Banker - NY Department of Financial Services; Licensed Mortgage Banker - CT Department of Banking; Licensed Mortgage Banker - PA Department of Banking, Licensed Mortgage Lender – FL Office of Financial Regulation

All rates, fees and programs are subject to change without notice.