November Headline Retail Sales were higher than expected

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Published Date 12/17/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +5 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Retail Sales: The headline November Retail Sales were higher than expected, up 0.7% versus estimates of 0.5%. However, most of the gains were in auto sales as the Retail Sales Ex-Autos were much lighter than expected at 0.2% versus estimates of 0.4%. The Control Group which feeds into GDP increased from -0.1% in October to +0.4% in November.

Manufacturing: November Capacity Utilization was weaker than expected, 76.8% versus estimates of 77.3% and Industrial Production was -0.1% versus estimates of 0.3%.

Housing: We will get the NAHB Home Builder Sentiment at 10 am ET it is expected to remain below 50.

Treasury Auction: We have an important 20Y Treasury Bond Auction at 1 pm today.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are trading in a narrow channel. Volatility has started at moderate to low levels with markets waiting on the conclusion of FOMC tomorrow.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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All rates, fees and programs are subject to change without notice.