Markets will be focused on inflation this week

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Published Date 12/9/2024

This week is focused on inflation data, released on Wednesday and Thursday. This morning markets unchanged, last week the 10 year note ended the week unchanged while FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon increased 30 bps.

The news over the weekend, rebel forces in Syria ousted President Bashar al-Assad, marking an end to the Assad family's 50-year rule and raising concerns about a new wave of instability in the region. Gold and crude oil higher this morning on concerns the region will be volatile. The overthrow of Assad was greeted cautiously by Western nations who are wary of the potential for further bloodshed and of a power vacuum in Syria, if a chaotic and contested transition of leadership takes place. Presently Russia and Iran are seen as the losers, Russia lost a seaport and a military base, Iran likely lost its major route to send weapons to the Hezbollah terror militia in Lebanon. The question now is what a new regime in Syria will be like. So far US stocks and bonds are little changed on the news.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened quietly +27, NASDAQ -45, S&P -10. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.17% +1 bp. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -2 bps from Friday’s close and unchanged from 9:30 am Friday.

There isn’t any data today so expecting a quiet session ahead of inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday. Treasury auctions also this week. The mid-east news about the demise of the al -Assad hasn’t moved markets. There isn’t much known about the rebels that took over Syria.

This Week’s Economic Calendar:

• Tuesday,

6 am NFIB small business optimism index (94.5 from 93.7)

8:30 am Q3 productivity (2.2%). Unit labor costs (+1.9%) both unchanged from the preliminary release.

1 pm $58B 3 year note auction

• Wednesday,

7 am weekly MBA mortgage applications

8:30 am November CPI (month/month +0.3% from +0.2%, year/year +2.7% from +2.6%; core month/month +0.3% unchanged from October, year/year +3.3% also unchanged from October)

1 pm $39B 10 year note auction

• Thursday,

8:30 am weekly jobless claims (220K from 224K the prior week)

November PPI (month/month +0.3% from +0.2%, year/year +2.6% from 2.2%; core PPI month/month +0.2% from +0.3%, year/year +3.2% from 2.2% in October)

1 pm $22B 3 0 year bond auction

• Friday,

8:30 am November import and export prices (month/month imports -0.3% from +0.3%, year/year +1.0% from +0.8%; exports month/month -0.1%)

Source: TBWS

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