Published Date 11/25/2024
Interest rates and stock indexes on fire to begin the week. At 8:30 am ET this morning the 10 year note yield at 4.33% -8 bps, the 2 down 6 bps, MBS prices +30 bps. The DJIA at 8:30 am +338.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased to -0.40 in October 2024, the lowest in nine months, from -0.27 in September and much worse than market forecasts of -0.20. The index suggested economic growth decreased again. Production-related indicators contributed -0.25, down from -0.23 in September. Employment-related indicators contributed –0.12, down from –0.01 and the personal consumption and housing category's contribution was -0.01, down from +0.02. Meanwhile, the sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution was –0.02, up from –0.04 in September.
Treasury will borrow $183B of 2s, 5s, and 7s this week, the total the same as last month’s 2s, 5s and 7s.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +340, NASDAQ +144, S&P +34. 10 year 4.29% -12 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +29 bps from Friday’s close and +36 bps from 9:30 am Friday.
The 2 year note auction at 1 pm is all there is today.
Wednesday is the big day for key data. By 12 pm Wednesday traders and many investors will leave the building. Friday the bond market will close at 2 pm, the NYSE at 1 pm although with nothing scheduled the activity on Friday won’t be much.
Technically, the 10 year note is trading below its 25 day average for the first time since the beginning of September. Geopolitical issues still out there.
This Week’s Economic Calendar:
Monday,
1 pm $69B 2 year note auction
Tuesday,
9 am October Case/Shiller home price index (expected +0.3%)
10 am November consumer confidence index (112.3 from 108.7)
October new home sales (725K from 738K)
1 pm 5 year note auction
2 pm FOMC minutes
Wednesday,
7 am weekly MBA mortgage applications
8:30 am weekly jobless claims (217K from 213K)
Oct durable goods orders (+0.5%, ex-transportation +0.2%)
Q3 Prelim GDP +2.8%, personal consumption expenditures +3.7%
9:45 am November Chicago purchasing managers index (44.2 from 41.6)
10 am October PCE (month/month +0.2%, year/year +2.3% from +2.1%; core PCE month/month +0.3%, year/year +2.8% from +2.7%)
October personal income (month/month +0.3%, year/year +0.2%, personal spending +0.4% from +0.5%)
October pending home sales (-1.8% from +7.4%)
1 pm 7 year note auction
Thursday,
Closed
Friday,
Bond market close at 2 pm
Source: TBWS
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
NMLS: 51519
Millenium Home Mortgage LLC
1719 Route 10 East, Suite 206, Parsippany NJ
Company NMLS: 51519
Office: 973-402-9112
Email: connie@mhmlender.com
NMLS: 51519
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