A short week for markets with a deluge of data on Wednesday

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Published Date 11/25/2024

Interest rates and stock indexes on fire to begin the week. At 8:30 am ET this morning the 10 year note yield at 4.33% -8 bps, the 2 down 6 bps, MBS prices +30 bps. The DJIA at 8:30 am +338.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased to -0.40 in October 2024, the lowest in nine months, from -0.27 in September and much worse than market forecasts of -0.20. The index suggested economic growth decreased again. Production-related indicators contributed -0.25, down from -0.23 in September. Employment-related indicators contributed –0.12, down from –0.01 and the personal consumption and housing category's contribution was -0.01, down from +0.02. Meanwhile, the sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution was –0.02, up from –0.04 in September.

Treasury will borrow $183B of 2s, 5s, and 7s this week, the total the same as last month’s 2s, 5s and 7s.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +340, NASDAQ +144, S&P +34. 10 year 4.29% -12 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +29 bps from Friday’s close and +36 bps from 9:30 am Friday.

The 2 year note auction at 1 pm is all there is today.

Wednesday is the big day for key data. By 12 pm Wednesday traders and many investors will leave the building. Friday the bond market will close at 2 pm, the NYSE at 1 pm although with nothing scheduled the activity on Friday won’t be much.

Technically, the 10 year note is trading below its 25 day average for the first time since the beginning of September. Geopolitical issues still out there.

This Week’s Economic Calendar:

Monday,

1 pm $69B 2 year note auction

Tuesday,

9 am October Case/Shiller home price index (expected +0.3%)

10 am November consumer confidence index (112.3 from 108.7)

October new home sales (725K from 738K)

1 pm 5 year note auction

2 pm FOMC minutes

Wednesday,

7 am weekly MBA mortgage applications

8:30 am weekly jobless claims (217K from 213K)

Oct durable goods orders (+0.5%, ex-transportation +0.2%)

Q3 Prelim GDP +2.8%, personal consumption expenditures +3.7%

9:45 am November Chicago purchasing managers index (44.2 from 41.6)

10 am October PCE (month/month +0.2%, year/year +2.3% from +2.1%; core PCE month/month +0.3%, year/year +2.8% from +2.7%)

October personal income (month/month +0.3%, year/year +0.2%, personal spending +0.4% from +0.5%)

October pending home sales (-1.8% from +7.4%)

1 pm 7 year note auction

Thursday,

Closed

Friday,

Bond market close at 2 pm

Source: TBWS

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