Three things that could impact rates this week

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Published Date 11/12/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under pressure today. The MBS market improved by +49 bps last week. This was enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility last week.

This week's Rate Forecast: Higher

Three Things: These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this week. 1) Inflation, 2) Retail Sales and 3) The Fed.

1) Inflation: We will get CPI and PPI this week. Both are expected to rise over their prior readings. The bond market will be paying close attention to the YOY and rolling 3 month averages in the Core readings.

2) Retail Sales: The October data will hit on Friday. The stronger this report it, the worse it will be for rates and vice versa.

3) The Talking Fed: We will hear from a ton of FOMC members this week including Powell.

11/12 Waller, Kashkari, Harker

11/13 Logan, Musalem, Schmid

11/14 Powell, Williams

This week's Potential Rate Volatility: High

This morning markets are under pressure. Volatility has started at moderate levels and will likely increase this week on inflation data and Fed comments.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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All rates, fees and programs are subject to change without notice.