Markets calm as trade deficits reported a little lower than expected

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Published Date 10/8/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are under mild pressure. The MBS market worsened by -17 bps yesterday. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Trade Balance: The August national Goods and Services Deficit (Trade Balance) was -$70.4B versus estimates of -$70.6B.

Optimism: The September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index continued to waffle in poor (sub 100) territory with a 91.5 reading.

The Fed: Today we will hear from Bostic, Jefferson, Collins and Kugler.

Treasury Auction: We will kick off three days of dumping our massive debt into the marketplace with today's shorter term 3 year Treasury note auction at 1 pm ET.

Oil: Oil prices remain elevated but have moved -3% lower in early trading.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are under mild pressure with some room for improvement. Volatility has started moderate but may escalate on geopolitical issues.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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All rates, fees and programs are subject to change without notice.