Markets will be focused on manufacturing and labor data this week

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Published Date 9/30/2024

Stock indexes prior to the 9:30 am ET open slightly weaker.

The key today, at 1:55 pm Jerome Powell speaking at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). When he spoke last Thursday, he just did opening remarks, today his remarks will go directly to the economy and the current Fed thinking.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -93, NASDAQ -44, S&P -11. 10 year note 3.76% unchanged after trading at 3.79% earlier this morning. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -5 bps from Friday’s close and +2 bps from 9:30 am Friday.

Investors continue to be bullish and aggressive, usually September is a soft month for equities, this time the indexes continued higher; seeing comments in the news like ‘I’ve never been so optimistic’, little scary the bullishness but can’t deny the continued increase in the key indexes.

Beside Powell this afternoon the keys this week; JOLTS job openings, ISM manufacturing and services and of course September employment. The odds for a 50 bps rate cut in November currently stand around 40%, well below week.

At 10 am September Chicago purchasing managers index expected at 46.0 increased to 46.6.

This Week’s Economic Calendar:

Today,

9:45 am September Chicago purchasing managers index (46.0 from 46.1 reported at 46.6)

10:30 am Dallas Fed manufacturing index (-10.0 from -9.7 in August)

1:55 pm Jerome Powell

Tuesday,

9:45 am final September PMI manufacturing index (47.0 from 47.9 in August)

10 am September IMS manufacturing index

August construction spending (-0.3%)

August JOLTS job openings (7.7 mil from 7.673 million)

Wednesday,

7 am weekly MBA mortgage applications

8:15 am September ADP jobs (+121.500 from +99,000 in August)

Thursday,

8:30 am weekly jobless claims (225K from 218K the week before)

9:45 am September PMI final indexes (the composite 54.4 from 54.6, service sector 55.4 from 55.7)

10 am September ISM services index (51.5 from 51.5)

August factory orders (+0.2% from +5.0% in July)

Friday,

8:30 am September employment data (unemployment 4.2% unch, NFP jobs +132,500 from 142K, private jobs 125K from 118K, month/month average hourly earnings +0.3% from +0.4%, year/year +3.7% from 3.8%)

Source: TBWS

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