Markets will be focused on the Jackson Hole Symposium this week

___

Published Date 8/19/2024

There is very little economic news this week, July existing and new home sales are the headlines and Wednesday’s BLS NFP from April 2023 to May 2024.

A couple of Fed officials over the weekend; San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (FOMC voter) in interview says Fed should gradually reduce rates, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (non-FOMC voter) in interview says a weaker employment market could trigger Fed rate cut. Old news and with Powell on Friday whatever comments from Fed officials this week won’t hold much water.

At 9:30 am ET the DJIA opened +88, NASDAQ +11, S&P +6. 10 year 3.89% unch. FNMA 5.5 30 y coupon -2 bp from Friday’s close and -3 bp from 9:30 am Friday.

At 10 am July leading indicators.

No key news today, rates likely to sit quietly ahead of FOMC minutes on Wednesday and Powell’s speech on Friday. Markets have completely discounted 25 bp cut with some movement thinking 50 bps, Powell will likely set that tone on Friday. A 50 bp cut was all the talk when July employment data crumbled setting off a brief panic and talk of 150 bps cut by the end of this year; that is all gone now. Whether its 25 or 50 at the September meeting totally dependent on inflation and economic data between now and then (July PCE inflation on the 30th, August employment on September 6th stand out). Traders currently expect a 72% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut.

Nothing on the calendar today, unless there is an unexpected news report through the day, we don’t look for much movement in markets.

This Week’s Economic Calendar:

Monday,

10 am July leading economic indicators (-0.3% from -0.2%)

Tuesday,

No data

Wednesday,

7 am weekly MBA mortgage applications

1 pm 20 year bond auction

2 pm FOMC minutes

Thursday,

Jackson Hole symposium begins

8:30 am weekly jobless claims (234K from 227K)

July Chicago Fed National Activity Index (-0.20 from +0.05)

9:45 am August preliminary indexes (composite 53.5 from 54.3, manufacturing index 49.5 from 49.6, services sector 54.0 from 55.0)

10 am July existing home sales (3.90 million from 3.89 million)

Friday,

10 am Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole

July new home sales (631K from 617K)

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Licensed by the NJ Department of Banking and Insurance; Licensed Mortgage Banker - NY Department of Financial Services; Licensed Mortgage Banker - CT Department of Banking; Licensed Mortgage Banker - PA Department of Banking, Licensed Mortgage Lender – FL Office of Financial Regulation

All rates, fees and programs are subject to change without notice.