The June retail sales report gave markets a small boost

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Published Date 7/16/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are getting some minor today. The MBS market worsened by -10 bps yesterday. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Retail Sales: The Headline June Retail Sales MOM data matched market expectations of 0.0%. But the prior month (May) was revised higher from 0.1% to 0.3%. Ex Autos, Retail Sales were much higher than expected, up 0.4% versus estimates of 0.1%. The closely watched Control Group doubled from May's level of 0.4% to June's reading of 0.9%.

Import/Export: June Import Prices were lighter than expected, 0.0% versus estimates of 0.2%. Export Prices fell by -0.5%.

Housing: Builders are not feeling good about their market as the NAHB index dropped to 42.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning the sell off continues. Volatility is high as markets watch Powell's confimration hearing.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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All rates, fees and programs are subject to change without notice.