Published Date 3/11/2024
More inflation data this week, this morning the 10 year began unchanged from Friday and MBSs were -4 bps at 8:15 am ET. No data today but Treasury will auction $56B of 3 year notes at 1 pm.
February CPI and PPI this week along with Treasury selling 3s, 10s, and 30s for a total of $117B. Last week J Powell testified at Congress adding more credibility the Fed is preparing to cut rates; data dependent of course, other Fed officials also chimed in. The two inflation reports based on the estimates should add to markets expectations. The current belief, the first cut will occur at the June FOMC meeting. The expectations versus the reality can deviate as we saw last month when January CPI was stronger than forecasts sending interest rate higher and MBSs lower, the 10 year note increased 15 bps and MBS prices down 49 bps. The point is markets are all in on rate cuts, so any disappointment meets with big reactions. CPI an PPI are the last inflation releases prior to the next FOMC meeting (3/20). The forecast for core CPI is +3.7% year/year, if so, it would be the lowest since April 2021.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened -62, NASDAQ -50, S&P -13. 10 year note unchanged at 4.08%. MBS prices at 9:30 am slightly lower, at 9:30 am the 6.0 30 year coupon -6 bps from Friday’s close and -11 bps from 9:30 am Friday.
Not much news for the financial markets this morning. The 3 year note auction at 1 pm could set off volatility, the last 3 year auction didn’t get much demand and pushed rates up. Tomorrow it is the 10 year note that demands more respect.
This Week’s Economic Calendar:
Monday,
1 pm $56B 3 year note auction
Tuesday,
6 am February NFIB small business optimism index (89.9 from 89.9)
8:30 am February CPI (month/month +0.4% from +0.3%, year/year +3.1% from +3.1%; ex food and energy month/month +0.3% from +0.4%, year/year +3.7% from 3.9%)
1 pm $39B 10 year note auction
2 pm February Treasury budget statement (-$298B)
Wednesday,
7 am weekly MBA mortgage applications
1 pm $22B 30 year bond auction
Thursday,
8:30 am weekly jobless claims (215K from 217K)
February PPI (month/month +0.3% from +0.3%, year/year +1.2% from +0.9%; month/month core +0.2% from +0.5%)
February retail sales (+0.7% from -0.8%, ex vehicles +0.4% from -0.6%)
10 am January business inventories (+0.3%)
Friday,
8:30 am March NY Empire Sates manufacturing index (-8.0 from -2.4)
February import and export prices (imports month/month +0.2%, year/year -0.7% from -1.3%; export prices month/month +0.1% from +0.8%)
9:15 am February industrial production and capacity utilization (production 0.0%, cap utilization 78.4% from 78.5%)
10 am mid-month University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (77.3 from 76.9)
Source: TBWS
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
NMLS: 51519
Millenium Home Mortgage LLC
1719 Route 10 East, Suite 206, Parsippany NJ
Company NMLS: 51519
Office: 973-402-9112
Email: connie@mhmlender.com
NMLS: 51519
9/27/2024
The dream of buying a home with friends can quickly turn into a nightmare when i... view more
9/24/2024
In the aftermath of devastating wildfires that have ravaged...... view more
9/24/2024
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept their key interest rate at 4.35%. For the sec... view more
9/23/2024
In a remarkable turn of events, the US housing market has witnessed a dramatic i... view more
9/23/2024
Two releases today. The Chicago Fed National Activity at 8:30 am ET and PMI Flas... view more
9/20/2024
All that money for your dream home just left your account. Soon you’ll hear the ... view more
9/17/2024
If Bob Dylan was right about "The times, they are a-changin’,” it’s time at last... view more
9/17/2024
Headline August Retail Sales were up +0.1% versus estimates of -0.2%. But Ex-Aut... view more
9/16/2024
As the real estate market continues to challenge buyers with high prices and hef... view more
9/16/2024
Overnight the 10 year note yield declined 3 bps, by 8:30 am ET back to unchanged... view more