Small business optimism higher than expected for December

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Published Date 1/9/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market improved by +3 bps yesterday. This was not enough to decrease mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Optimism Index: The December NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was higher than expected, 91.9 versus estimates of 90.7.

Trade Balance: The November Goods and Trade Services Balance (aka trade deficit) was -$63.2B versus estimates of -$65.0B.

The Fed: Today we will hear from Vice Chair Barr at 1 pm ET.

Treasury Auction: We kick off three days of flooding the market with our government debt with today's shorter term 3 year note at 1 pm.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets are neutral. Volatility has started a little choppy within a narrow trading channel.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

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All rates, fees and programs are subject to change without notice.