Single-family home construction buoys housing starts data

___

Published Date 12/19/2023

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are moving sideways today. The MBS market changed by 0 bps yesterday. This was not enough to change mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced moderate volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Housing: We got a mixed bag of housing news today. November Building Permits were lighter than expected, 1.460M versus estimates of 1.470M. Housing Starts were stronger than expected, 1.56M versus estimates of 1.36M which is the highest level since May of 2022. The surge was all in single-family starts which soared 18% MoM. Single-family permits rose MoM for the 11th month in a row.

Central Banks: The Bank of Japan kept their interest rate at -0.1%. The BoJ maintained policy settings & forward guidance, Ueda said little chance for BoJ to say policy will change in January.

The Fed: Today we will hear from Bostic and Goolsbee.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Low

This morning markets have a very small positive lean. Volatility has started low and is likely to stay that way unless we get surprising statements from the Fed.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.

Licensed by the NJ Department of Banking and Insurance; Licensed Mortgage Banker - NY Department of Financial Services; Licensed Mortgage Banker - CT Department of Banking; Licensed Mortgage Banker - PA Department of Banking, Licensed Mortgage Lender – FL Office of Financial Regulation

All rates, fees and programs are subject to change without notice.